Ladies and gentlemen, we did it… College football is on the horizon. 

If you’re like me, this Iowa State vs. Kansas State game coming up is circled on your calendar, too. Not because it’s one of those above average Big 12 shootouts that we all love, but because it marks the official kickoff of the 2025 college football season. At noon ET next Saturday, the Cyclones and Wildcats will face off in the Aer Lingus CFB Classic in Dublin Ireland, which is college football’s newest week 0 showcase game. Last year, the Aer Lingus game offered us a foreshadow for one of college football’s biggest horror stories of last season, the Florida State Seminoles. 

In 2023, the undefeated Seminoles were heartbroken when their 13-0 ACC champ finish was not enough for them to find their way into the final rendition of the 4-team College Football Playoff. Long-story-short, the Seminoles were led by an outstanding veteran quarterback in Jordan Travis who went down with a knee injury in their final game of the regular season. After witnessing a Travis-less FSU limp to a victory in the ACC championship over an under-qualified Louisville team, the committee decided to leave the Seminoles out of the CFP to make room for teams they felt would be more competitive. Since this misfortune, Florida State football has been on one of the most drastic falls from grace the sport has ever seen. A disappointing loss in Dublin to a decent Georgia Tech team to kick off their 2024 season was the least of their woes. Just one year after their perfect season, they crawled to a 2-10 record in 2024, leaving their once-solid program in disarray.

Entering the 2025 season, FSU head coach Mike Norvell sits on a hot seat that is so hot, it’s hard to believe he even remains as FSU’s head coach for the upcoming season. For Norvell to set a bar so high for himself right before the expanded playoff, and for him to not even sniff bowl eligibility the following year indicates that he’ll likely be packing if he can’t find a miracle season in 2025.

The level of pressure that a coach on the hot seat feels is so heavy that it affects the entire ecosystem around them. The assistant coaches, the players, the fans, the university, and the entire town’s future hangs in the balance when a head coach is faced with a “prove-it” season. While Mike Norvell will be battling for his Florida State head-coaching life in 2025, so will many other head coaches across the country in their respective programs. Oftentimes this type of pressure causes a collapse in a football program, but every once in a while, that pressure is what forms a diamond of a season for a CFB team.

The following is a list of CFB head coaches to watch out for in 2025 as their backs get higher and higher up against the wall! 

1. Hugh Freeze, Auburn

Temperature: Cooked

If one head coach in college football is sitting on an insurmountable hot seat, it’s Hugh Freeze. Auburn is among the premier programs in college football, and when Auburn is good, games at Jordan-Hare are must-see-TV. But entering the 2025 season, it’s been several years since we’ve seen an elite group of Auburn Tigers. In 2023, Hugh Freeze was brought in to bring the Tigers back to their former glory, but in two seasons, we haven’t seen the Tigers make much progress from the back of the peloton in the SEC. 

With the SEC growing more competitive since conference realignment, Freeze and the Tigers will be coming into the season this year as an afterthought in the conference. They’ve replaced one unsuccessful SEC QB in Peyton Thorne with another in Jackson Arnold out of OU. While the exterior college football community doesn’t expect much from Auburn in 2025, the Tiger faithful likely will not accept a third disappointing season out of Hugh Freeze. Without a bowl-eligible finish, and a couple of signature wins, I expect to see a new face on the Auburn sideline come 2026.

2. Mike Norvell, Florida State

Temperature: Cooked

There’s not much I can say about Norvell that I haven’t already. He’ll need to pull a rabbit out of a hat in order to stay on as the HC at Florida State. It certainly doesn’t help his position that 2 of FSU’s 4 non-conference games are against a preseason top-10 Alabama squad and a Florida Gator team that could be in the SEC championship hunt come rivalry week. Clinging onto bowl eligibility is also going to be extremely tough as the ACC is beginning to strengthen. At this point, I think we can mark down Clemson and Miami as likely losses on their schedule as well. Whatever the threshold is for Norvell to continue in Tallahassee seems like too tall of a task to me.

3. Sam Pittman, Arkansas

Temperature: Cooked

Since Sam Pittman was hired as the head coach at Arkansas in 2020, he has been among the most beloved head coaches in all of CFB. In his first full season in 2021, the Razorbacks were a pleasant surprise in the SEC, finishing 8-4. Pittman solidified himself as the real deal in Fayetteville that year, but after that, he hasn’t shown any improvement.

In each of the last three seasons, Arkansas has been a fringe bowl team that can’t win their big ones when it matters. Pittman was on the hot seat already last season, but bought himself another year with a signature win over Tennessee. This offseason, Arkansas didn’t really make any eye-opening moves and is set for another 5-7 or 6-6 finish according to most expert predictions. As sad as it will be to see Sam go, Arkansas will have to move on from him if they want to compete in the gauntlet that is the SEC.

4. Mike Gundy, Oklahoma State

Temperature: Scorching

Mike Gundy still being the head coach for Oklahoma State is truly impressive. Over his 20-year tenure at OSU, he seems to be able to pull out 9-win seasons just when the Cowboy-faithful are beginning to count him out. But after the disaster that was OSU’s 2024 season, it might be tough for Gundy to come back once more. Luckily for Gundy, Oklahoma State’s piss-poor season was out-stunk by Florida State last year. And if FSU can keep trusting Norvell, I suppose it’s only fair that OSU keeps Gundy around for another year. 

In true Big 12 football fashion, the Big 12 was completely flipped upside down in 2024. While the college football experts were predicting an Oklahoma State vs. Utah matchup in the Big 12 championship before the season, the conference had wildly different plans. I mean, why wouldn’t a team who played for a Big 12 championship in 2023, kept all of their key players, and no longer had to worry about Texas or OU anymore be able to waltz into another Big 12 championship? Your guess is as good as mine. 

What will be playing to Gundy’s advantage in 2025, though, is the volatility of the Big 12. Trying to predict a Big 12 football champion in August is like throwing a dart blindfolded. This season, OSU won’t have a big circle on everyone else’s calendar, which might allow Gundy to sneak some signature wins as he tries to get the Cowboys back to the top of the conference. This upcoming season is going to define Mike Gundy- is he still one of the best coaches in the country or is he one of the old-school guys that can’t hang in the new age of CFB?

5. Brent Venables, Oklahoma

Temperature: Scorching

We have officially reached crunch time in the Brent Venables era at Oklahoma. Under Bob Stoops and Lincoln Riley, OU was a perennial powerhouse in the Big 12. It seemed like they were contending for a conference championship, playing in a New Years 6 Bowl, or sending someone to New York City for the Heisman ceremony every single year. Since Riley’s departure in 2022, though, Oklahoma has yet to look like their old selves, and the patience of Sooner fans appears to be at its end.

To Venables’ credit, when he took over the program, Lincoln Riley essentially took the entire roster with him to USC, requiring Venables to rebuild. Then, last season, his Heisman-caliber quarterback Dillon Gabriel transferred to Oregon, sending him into an unforgiving SEC schedule without a true starter on the team. And there have been glimpses of greatness from the Venables-led Sooners in the form of signature wins over Texas in 2023 and Alabama in 2024.

As one of the undisputed college football blue bloods, OU has all the facilities, resources, and legacy that attracts the premier football talent across the nation, but Venables has yet to put this talent to good use. 2025, however, feels like it could be the year we see OU find its way as a young SEC program. They’ve added one of the biggest transfer QB names in John Mateer, who could be next in line as one of the great Oklahoma quarterbacks. I believe their week 2 matchup against Michigan will be an early indicator of whether Venables will be staying in Norman or not. Another season that doesn’t live up to the standard of Oklahoma football will almost surely result in a change on the sideline.

6. Billy Napier, Florida

Temperature: Hot

Take a second to Google “Florida Gators football schedule,” and try not to be horrified. In 2024 the Gators got stuck with the hardest schedule in college football and now they have to play it again. 

Last season, Billy Napier’s back was so far against the wall after a slow start to the season and some indecisiveness about his quarterback situation. An unfortunate injury to his starting QB Graham Mertz forced Florida’s true freshman phenom DJ Lagway into the starting role, and the Gators got hot to finish the season. After a rocky start, the Gators picked up signature SEC wins over LSU and Ole Miss, and won a blowout game over Tulane in the Gasparilla Bowl. In 2025, there are high expectations for Napier and Lagway’s squad.

If not for DJ Lagway and his incredible run to cap off the 2024 season, Billy Napier would certainly not be in Gainesville anymore. But although a strong finish last year saved Napier’s life as the head coach of the Gators, it may have only bought him one more year. Florida will face 7 preseason top-25 teams this year, which won’t make it easy for Napier to keep rolling as the Gators’ guy.

7. Luke Fickell, Wisconsin

Temperature: Hot

Remember when Wisconsin was a perennial Big Ten championship contender in the 2010s? What happened? 

The Montee Ball, Russell Wilson, and Johnathan Taylor continuity of Badger football has stalled over the past few seasons, and in 2022, Wisconsin decided to do something about it and hire Luke Fickell. In 2021, Fickell was college football’s biggest overachiever, leading the group-of-5 Cincinnati Bearcats to a berth in the four-team CFP. At a big-time Power 5 program, there was no telling what Fickell could achieve with the Badgers. In two seasons with Fickell in Madison, however, the Badgers have remained in the bowl game fringe and even missed a bowl in 2024. Wisconsin is now faced with one of the toughest Big Ten schedules across the conference and has to go into Bryant-Denny stadium to face Alabama in week 3.

The question is: are three average seasons going to be enough to make a tough decision regarding Fickell’s future at Wisconsin? Maybe not, but right now it looks like Wisconsin’s investment in a hot commodity head coach in 2022 is not going to pay off anytime soon.

8. Lincoln Riley, USC

Temperature: Heating Up

Ironically for Lincoln Riley, like Oklahoma, USC is another college football blue blood that hasn’t been its old self for a few years now. But with USC, I can’t quite understand why that is. They attract the premier talent from one of the top football talent-producing states in California and they brought in one of the brightest young head coaches 3 years ago in Lincoln Riley. 

Riley had a stellar first season with the Trojans in 2022, making an appearance in the PAC-12 championship and mentoring his third Heisman-winning quarterback Caleb Williams. Over the past two seasons, though, USC football has been trending downward. They collapsed after a 6-0 start in 2023 where they ended up finishing 7-5 in the regular season, and last season they limped to a 6-6 record. Coming into the 2025 season, the USC Trojans are not in the Big Ten elite conversation, which is far from where USC stakeholders thought they would be at this point.

If I had to make an estimation, Lincoln Riley will still be on the sideline in 2026 for a few reasons, though. First, Riley’s buyout is still going to be north of $50 million after next season, which means he’ll likely live for another year as the Trojans’ head coach. Secondly, despite a substandard season in 2024, Riley still secured a couple huge wins for USC over LSU in their season opener and over Texas A&M in the Las Vegas Bowl. 

Lincoln Riley’s seat is certainly not quite as hot as some of the previously mentioned head coaches, but if USC doesn’t surprise the masses this season with an outstanding Big Ten record, Riley will undoubtedly move up the watchlist heading into 2026.

9. Brian Kelly, LSU

Temperature: Heating Up

Is anyone else not buying the 2025 LSU hype? Because I’m not. Some experts have LSU as their national champion and Garrett Nussmeier as their Heisman trophy winner, but I’m not seeing it quite yet. In Brian Kelly’s three seasons with the Tigers, the issue has remained the same: defense. And they haven’t done much going into 2025 to address that issue. 

While Kelly hasn’t had any bad seasons in his three years with LSU, he hasn’t exactly blown anyone away. And if we’ve learned anything from how quickly Ed Orgeron was relieved of his duty, it’s that LSU is not well-known for patience with head coaches. 

Kelly’s seat isn’t necessarily on fire, but if the expectation is, once again, to make the College Football Playoff, and he can’t get them there for a fourth time, does LSU keep him aboard?

The Future’s Hot Seat

The CFB head coaches mentioned above are under immense pressure as we move into 2025, but there are others who still have much to prove before they can feel safe in their current roles. Whether they’re too new to consider hot seat head coaches or their hefty contracts have them in safe positions for the next few years, I’ve listed 10 more head coaches who need to display improvement before their seats begin to heat up:

1. Kalen Deboer, Alabama
2. Mario Cristobal, Miami (FL)
3. Sherrone Moore, Michigan
4. Sonny Dykes, TCU
5. Jonathan Smith, Michigan State
6. Dave Aranda, Baylor
7. Mike Elko, Texas A&M
8. Brent Pry, Virginia Tech
9. Brent Brennan, Arizona
10. Scott Satterfield, Cincinnati