The inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff season was a true spectacle.

In my 22-year-old memory, I can’t think of a sports season in my life, in any sport, league or level, in which I was as emotionally invested in the games, the teams, the athletes, and the stories as I was during this college football season. My weekdays in the Fall served as a countdown to the coming Saturday, logging hours upon hours of The Pat McAfee Show, and by the time College GameDay began on Saturday morning, there could be zero interruptions. My Saturdays were fully consumed by noon to midnight football, football, and more football.

Although I had always indulged in some Saturday viewership every CFB season, this one meant a little bit more to me for some reason. And from what little research I conducted (striking up essential CFB discussions over a beer), it seemed like the average sports-loving college student like myself would agree.

Was it the new 12-team playoff format that caused me to pay such close attention? Is it this new era of Transfer Portal free agency and NIL mercenaries that made it that much more exciting for me? Did I really enjoy watching the cocky SEC teams crumble when their opportunities to secure playoff bids came? Could it be that my Indiana University enrollment and my upbringing just a few blocks from Texas’ DKR Memorial Stadium made this particular football season unignorable?

Whatever it was that caused my infatuation with the sport, I’m all in on the 2025 college football season. So much so that I’ve compiled my expectations for each 2024 CFP team’s 2025 season. I’ve ranked the teams based on how safe I believe each team is to find their way back into the playoff.

It’s definitely strange to give a perennial “can’t-get-over-the-hump” team like Penn State the nod, but Penn State is the one playoff team from this past season with the least questions to answer. To put it simply, they are a CFP semifinalist team that was one QB mistake from having a chance to play for the National Championship. They’re keeping their 5-star quarterback with genuine NFL interest, Drew Allar, and their 1,000 rushing yard backfield tandem, Nick Singleton and Kaytron “Fatman” Allen. The Nittany Lions also hired Jim Knowles, the defensive coordinator for the 2024 Ohio State national championship-winning team, which is a fantastic hire to combat the loss of multiple important defensive stars like DL Abdul Carter. 

Perhaps Penn State isn’t the most exciting team coming into the 2025 college football season, but I’d bargain that they’re the safest bet to find their way back into the playoff next season. If there’s one man who’s benefitted the most from a 12-team expansion, I think it just might be HC James Franklin. I don’t see many scenarios in which Penn State doesn’t fit the description to be one of those 12 every season for the foreseeable future.

2. Texas Longhorns

Prediction: Playoff Team. Regular Season Projection: 11-1.

Tough Opponents: Ohio State, Florida, Georgia.

Impact Returners: Colin Simmons, Anthony Hill Jr., Michael Taffe.

(247) Transfer Class Rank: 75. Recruiting Class Rank: 1

Unlike Penn State, Texas is a team with quite a few questions that need answering, however, they’ll play another relatively easy SEC schedule this season which should propel them to another postseason.

Although the Longhorns have many vacancies to fill on both the offensive and defensive ends of the ball, they also have important returners who are looking to stake their claims as some of the best players in college football. Obviously, the expectations for QB Arch Manning’s first season at the helm are sky high, but from what we have seen so far, there is no doubt that Manning has the potential to meet them. And if Arch Manning can fulfill his projection as the Heisman Trophy favorite this upcoming season, I see no reason that LB Colin Simmons can’t be the best defensive player in all of college football next season either. 

Returning defensive leaders like Simmons, LB Anthony Hill Jr., and S Michael Taffe in the Pete Kwaitkowski defense should keep Texas smothering opposing running backs on the goal line. The Quinn Ewers offense this past season was Texas’ Achilles heel, so I believe that an offense with a lot of new blood and essential returners in RB CJ Baxter and RB Tre Wisner could be exactly what the doctor ordered for HC Steve Sarkisian and the Longhorns.

3. Georgia Bulldogs

Prediction: Playoff Team. Regular Season Projection: 10-2.

Tough Opponents: Tennessee, Alabama, Ole Miss, Florida, Texas.

Impact Returners: Nate Frazier, Oscar Delp, Daylen Everette.

(247) Transfer Class Rank: 45. Recruiting Class Rank: 2

Georgia is not an easy team to predict. On one hand, I have doubts about ranking them lower than Texas since HC Kirby Smart coached circles around Texas’ Sarkisian twice in 2024. It also seems they’ve made some huge steps to addressing their wide-receiving drop problem by grabbing WR Zachariah Branch from USC out of the portal. On the other, the legitimacy of QB Gunner Stockton does raise my eyebrow, and they have a regular season schedule that I wouldn’t wish upon my worst enemy. 

The Kirby Smart system and culture at UGA, however, does give me confidence that the Bulldogs will have another impressive season. It is my opinion that the dissolution of the distraction that was the Carson Beck show last season will reflect much like the second half of Georgia’s SEC Championship victory did. Are they going to have to come away with some tough wins? Yes, but that’s what Kirby Smart does.

4. Ohio State Buckeyes

Prediction: Playoff Team. Regular Season Projection: 10-2.

Tough Opponents: Texas, Penn State, Michigan.

Impact Returners: Jeremiah Smith, Caleb Downs, Sonny Styles.

(247) Transfer Class Rank: 49. Recruiting Class Rank: 3

It would be a serious mistake to underestimate this Ohio State program. If we’ve learned anything from this past season, it’s that Ohio State is the real deal when it comes to player development, high school recruiting, and transfer portal recruiting. Most people would argue that they are returning the best offensive player and the best defensive player in all of college football. WR Jeremiah Smith and S Caleb Downs are back in the scarlet and gray in 2025, but this time around they’ll have championship experience under their belts. They have a new starting quarterback in Julian Sayin who played understudy to a National Championship MVP for an entire season. The 5-star culture at Ohio State will make them just as dangerous this upcoming season as they were this past season.

However, if there is one thing that intrigues me the most about Ohio State this upcoming season, it’s that we are about to learn a lot about the type of competitor HC Ryan Day is. He’s going to be without his offensive and defensive coordinators from 2024, his veteran quarterback Will Howard, and his 1,000-yard rushing tandem Treveyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins. He’s also added a pissed-off Texas Longhorn team to his schedule and he has to go into the Big House after this past season’s disaster against Michigan. The challenges are going to be daunting, and Ryan Day already has his championship. What is going to motivate Ryan Day in the 2025 season? I’m excited to find out.

5. Oregon Ducks

Prediction: Playoff Team. Regular Season Projection: 11-1.

Tough Opponents: Penn State, Indiana, USC.

Impact Returners: Matayo Uiagalelei, Evan Stewart, Kobe Savage.

(247) Transfer Class Rank: 11. Recruiting Class Rank: 5

Have you seen Oregon’s schedule? To preface, Oregon is going to be far from the team they were this past season. They’re going to have a new face at almost every position on the field in 2025 and they aren’t pulling in another veteran transfer quarterback. I thought this would pose a real challenge for HC Dan Lanning, until I saw their schedule. Lanning could sleep walk to 10-2 this season, and if he’s awake for one game against either PSU or Indiana, they’ll be back in the Big Ten championship. Oregon’s power in the transfer portal and recruiting will surely provide them with a good enough roster to run through this Big Ten schedule. I expect to see them back in the playoff.

6. Clemson Tigers

Prediction: Playoff Team. Regular Season Projection: 11-1.

Tough Opponents: LSU, South Carolina.

Impact Returners: Cade Klubnik, Bryant Wesco Jr., T.J. Moore.

(247) Transfer Class Rank: 103. Recruiting Class Rank: 26

Having Clemson at number 6 out of the 12 might seem a little too high, but the ACC is the one conference out of the Power 4 where I’m pretty certain about who is going to come out on top, and that’s the Tigers. To sum up Clemson, they’re a playoff team with a Heisman-hopeful quarterback, which no other ACC team can boast.

Do I think Clemson is going to be a legitimate title contender next season? Not really, but I do think they will burn through their ACC schedule this Fall, and QB Cade Klubnik will have a ticket to New York as a Heisman finalist. We can probably expect a high-volume offense and an average defense out of HC Dabo Swinney’s team once again. If they can come up with a win over LSU and/or South Carolina, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Clemson with a first round bye.

 

7. Tennessee Volunteers

Prediction: Playoff Hopeful. Regular Season Projection: 10-2.

Tough Opponents: Georgia, Alabama, Florida.

Impact Returners: Nico Iamaleava, Chris Brazzell II, Arion Carter.

(247) Transfer Class Rank: 86. Recruiting Class Rank: 11

Would it be wrong to say that Nico Iamaleava is the best returning starting quarterback in the SEC? Iamaleava has certainly had the most significant experience out of the group of returning SEC quarterbacks since he’s played in a road playoff game. In my eyes, Tennessee is likely to have a comfortable 9 wins with Nico back under center, and winning one game against either UGA, Alabama, or Florida will put the Vols back in the playoff for the second year in a row.

The Vols will be losing some essential talent to the NFL for the upcoming season, but it still certainly feels like they should be in for a repeat season of last year. They’ll win the big home games in Neyland Stadium, and probably drop the big ones on the road. Whether that puts them in the SEC Championship and/or a playoff home game will determine their chances of making a playoff run. They won’t be able to afford losing any easy ones on the road like they did to Arkansas this past season though.

8. Indiana Hoosiers

Prediction: Playoff Hopeful. Regular Season Projection: 10-2.

Tough Opponents: Oregon, Penn State.

Impact Returners: Mikail Kamara, Elijah Sarratt, D’Angelo Ponds.

(247) Transfer Class Rank: 14. Recruiting Class Rank: 46

As long as Indiana keeps playing this type of schedule, HC Curt Cignetti is going to have the Hoosiers among the top group in the Big Ten. Despite losing their star QB Kurtis Rourke, they’ve added another steady hand in Fernando Mendoza, a top 5 transfer portal QB out of Cal. Indiana football appears to be heading up in the right direction after locking down Cignetti for the next decade.

Defensive stars like CB D’Angelo Ponds, DL Mikail Kamara, and LB Aiden Fisher returning with CFP experience will elevate the Indiana defense this season, and I predict the Hoosiers have another great season.

9. Arizona State Sun Devils

Prediction: Playoff Hopeful. Regular Season Projection: 9-3.

Tough Opponents: Iowa State, Colorado.

Impact Returners: Sam Leavitt, Jordyn Tyson, Keyshaun Elliott.

(247) Transfer Class Rank: 48. Recruiting Class Rank: 47

To me, Arizona State and Clemson are very similar teams. Both are conference champions coming off CFP losses to Texas, both benefited from the auto playoff berth system, both have outstanding returning quarterbacks, and both are losing dynamic running backs to the NFL. However, while I say the ACC is the most predictable of the power 4 conferences, I’d argue that the Big XII is the least predictable, hence Arizona State’s projection to finish last in the Big XII last season. Due to the high volume offenses and the not-so-great defenses in the Big XII, I never know who’s going to win any given Big XII game, which means I have no idea who should be the favorite to win the Big XII this year.

Though I may have doubts about Arizona State repeating their great success this season, I do think that QB Sam Leavitt and HC Kenny Dillingham certainly proved themselves as competent against great teams, and maybe the return of WR Jordyn Tyson will help Arizona State combat the departure of RB Cam Skattebo. Is Arizona State going to be a contender for another Big XII title? Absolutely, but so are 8 other Big XII teams.

10. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Prediction: Outside Looking In. Regular Season Projection: 9-3.

Tough Opponents: Miami (FL), Texas A&M, USC.

Impact Returners: Jeremiyah Love, Jordan Faison, Jaden Greathouse.

(247) Transfer Class Rank: 57. Recruiting Class Rank: 12

With the way Notre Dame’s offseason has been going, it’s impossible not to project that they’ll take a step back from their success this past season. They’ve lost some key pieces to the NFL and transfer portal, none bigger than their defensive coordinator Al Golden and QB Riley Leonard. 

I have no doubt that Notre Dame will return to the CFP multiple times under the leadership of HC Marcus Freeman, however this season is going to require some huge regular season wins. Adding road games at Miami (FL) and Arkansas is going to make repeating such a fantastic season quite difficult without another seasoned veteran quarterback out of the transfer portal. On the bright side for whoever Freeman appoints as his starter though, he’s going to have some great weapons to play with. Despite losing important pieces on the offensive line, stepping into this offense will be fun for any quarterback since RBs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price and WRs Jordan Faison and Jaden Greathouse will be back for the Irish in 2025.

11. SMU Mustangs

Prediction: Outside Looking In. Regular Season Projection: 8-4.

Tough Opponents: Clemson, Miami (FL).

Impact Returners: Kevin Jennings, Isaiah Nwokobia, RJ Maryland.

(247) Transfer Class Rank: 26. Recruiting Class Rank: 28

SMU is the first 2024 playoff team that I would be very surprised to see return. Even if SMU can match their success this past season, it’s unlikely they will be given the benefit of the doubt from the committee to get in over other teams that are hovering around the 12th spot. 

Of course, I could be very wrong. QB Kevin Jennings is only a Sophomore now, and with some significant playoff experience, he could have the fire necessary to avenge their embarrassing loss in the 2024 playoff. SMU could definitely get another shot at the ACC title, so anything is possible. I am inclined to believe, however, that we won’t be seeing the Mustangs again in the playoff in 2025.

12. Boise State Broncos

Prediction: Playoff Unlikely.

Impact Returners: Maddux Madsen, Matt Lauter, Latrell Caples.

(247) Transfer Class Rank: 114. Recruiting Class Rank: 68

2024 Boise State will go down in my heart as one of the most fun football teams I’ve ever watched, but sadly, 2025 Boise State is going to need a miracle season to get back to the CFP quarterfinals. The odds are going to be stacked up against the Broncos. They will be without their 2,000 yard rusher in RB Ashton Jeanty and they’ve joined the PAC-12, will provide steeper challenges for them in 2025. I would love to see a playoff game on the blue turf one day, but the reality is that we might not get that anytime soon.

10 Teams to Look Out For

If I had to predict a few other teams that could be making their 12-team playoff debuts in 2025, I would look out for:

1. Michigan Wolverines

Michigan finished the 2024 season with some serious momentum and have filled their quarterback vacancy with the #1 QB prospect, Bryce Underwood. The pieces will be there. This is going to be a prove-it year for HC Sherrone Moore.

2. LSU Tigers

HC Brian Kelly has done some serious work in the transfer portal this offseason. If QB Garrett Nussmeier is ever going to compete in the CFP, 2025 is his year.

3. Alabama Crimson Tide

Alabama finished just outside the playoff last year. WR Ryan Williams is due for another impressive season in 2025. They’ve also added a 5-star quarterback in Keelon Russell. As an IU Hoosier fan, I have full confidence in HC Kalen Deboer getting them in this season. 

4. Florida Gators

Florida is another squad that finished 2024 with tons of momentum. After a rocky start to the season, they kicked into high gear once DJ Lagway was implemented as the starting quarterback. With Lagway under center, I believe Florida will be among the best teams in the SEC this upcoming season, but they have another gauntlet schedule in 2025.

5. South Carolina Gamecocks

One of the most likable college football teams last year was South Carolina. QB LaNorris Sellers is going to be in the Heisman conversation next season, and a couple big wins could propel them to the playoff.

6. Miami Hurricanes

We’re going to learn a lot about QB Carson Beck this season. Was he the beneficiary of a great Georgia system or is he a legitimate winner at the quarterback position? Miami will almost definitely be in the ACC title conversation when we get late in the 2025 season, but their defense can’t afford to perform like they did last season.

7. Iowa State Cyclones

It felt right to group all of these Big XII teams together towards the end of the list. Like I said when discussing ASU, the Big XII is going to be wide open. Iowa State is another team that finished just outside the playoff and they’ve got many essential returners including QB Rocco Becht.

8. Colorado Buffaloes

We’ll be getting a new-look Deion Sanders team. This could be a disaster without two of the top NFL prospects in the country, or it could be just what they needed. Come week 10 or 11 in 2025, Colorado just might have a shot to play for a Big XII title.

9. BYU Cougars

BYU is another team I can see winning the Big XII this upcoming season. They were a team I loved watching in 2024 because I didn’t know a single name on the roster. They’d hit the field and quietly kick your ass.

10. Ole Miss Rebels

Although the loss of QB Jaxson Dart makes Ole Miss an unlikely contender to me, they’ll be adding another great transfer class and a top-20 recruiting class. They’ll have to be a true national championship contender to make the playoff through this schedule they have in 2025.

2025 12-Team Playoff Predictions:

With the assumption that the CFP Committee will continue with their seeding system, I’ve arranged my official playoff prediction for 2025:

1. Texas – SEC Champion
2. Michigan – Big Ten Champion
3. Clemson – ACC Champion
4. Iowa State – Big XII Champion
5. Penn State
6. Georgia
7. Ohio State
8. Alabama
9. Oregon
10. LSU
11. Tennessee
12. UNLV, Oregon State, Army, Liberty, etc. (Group of 5 Teams)